A year ago, things looked better for Myanmar’s armed resistance.
Now, the regime is clawing back territory across eastern and northern Myanmar. Thousands of conscripts have restored its depleted ranks. The gift of Lashio – handed back without a fight – has emboldened regime leader Min Aung Hlaing. China and Russia continue providing the political and military lifelines keeping him afloat.
With Myanmar’s revolution, the binary lens of democracy versus dictatorship makes it tempting to indulge triumph or despair at every turn. But patterns emerge when you step back.
The most obvious is what’s stymying the resistance after four years: a shadow government incapable of rising to the moment; no unified command structure; competing, parochial political visions and the glaring absence of cross-country military coordination. Without effective leadership and compromise, these problems will only worsen.
The military is monstrous and murderous. But it’s also cohesive, well-resourced, and pursuing a single goal. It’s only ever fought elements of its own country (besides Chinese nationalists in the 1950s), and though it’s never won a war – never properly defeated any groups – it’s exceptionally good at surviving.
Veteran dissidents now fighting in the resistance know this intimately. I’d planned to dissect the regional battlefront situation in this post – the Arakan Army advance, the Chin Brotherhood’s next step – but that would require a lot more rambling.
Instead, let me introduce you to Aung Myo, and see if his story offers insight into the revolution.